The West Asia conflict is spiraling, and the biggest risk India now faces is its oil supply stability. As Iran threatens retaliation and regional unrest spreads, oil prices have already reacted — touching a five-month high before easing slightly. However, the risk remains high and any further escalation could send prices soaring again.
India’s Heavy Dependence on West Asian Oil
India is the third-largest oil consumer in the world, and its dependency on oil imports is significant. Over 40% of its oil comes from West Asia, making regional security a matter of direct national interest.
Of the 5.5 million barrels India consumes daily, between 1.5 and 2 million barrels pass through the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow but strategic waterway that has been the focus of multiple geopolitical threats.
Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint in global oil trade. Around 20% of the world’s oil supply, approximately 20 million barrels per day, passes through this corridor.
Iran has threatened to close the Strait — a move that would:
- Disrupt oil supply routes globally
- Create an artificial oil shortage
- Lead to surging inflation, especially in oil-importing countries like India and the United States
Yet, this strategy is a double-edged sword. Iran too relies on this route to export oil, especially to China, which buys 90% of Iran’s oil. Closing the Strait would therefore inflict economic damage on Iran itself.
India’s Strategy to Navigate the Oil Risk
Despite no longer buying oil directly from Iran due to sanctions, India is vulnerable to any disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, especially from countries like Iraq, UAE, and Saudi Arabia.
India’s Energy Minister, Hardeep Singh Puri, has assured that the country is prepared to handle any potential supply shocks:
🛢️ Diversified Imports
- India is ramping up imports from Russia — currently importing over 2 million barrels per day from Russia, overtaking West Asia in monthly share.
- Purchases from the U.S. have also increased.
Strategic Oil Reserves
- India holds 74 days' worth of oil in storage, covering over two months of consumption — a crucial buffer during supply chain shocks.
The Road Ahead
India's ability to diversify suppliers and build strong strategic oil reserves has proven useful in past global crises. But the current West Asian tensions will be a significant test of this resilience.
For a country as energy-hungry and globally integrated as India, maintaining multiple reliable oil partners is no longer a strategy — it's a survival necessity. As global powers jostle in the volatile oil landscape, India must continue strengthening its energy independence, diplomatic engagement, and emergency preparedness.
Conclusion
Oil is not just an economic commodity — it's a geopolitical instrument. While the current crisis in West Asia threatens to disrupt global markets, India’s proactive diversification and strategic foresight may cushion the blow.
Still, in a world where oil routes can become warzones overnight, vigilance, diplomacy, and preparedness are India’s best tools to weather the storm.
